NFL Week 1 odds, expert picks and previews for all 16 games (2024)

The NFL is back, and Week 1 is shaping up to be an exciting start to the season with four days of action and only a handful of teams favored by more than six points. The start of the league’s 105th season features a couple of playoff rematches, three divisional games and the breaking of new international ground.

It all starts on Thursday night’s NFL Kickoff Game when the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game. On Friday night, the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles will face off in Sao Paulo, Brazil, as the NFL plays its first-ever game in South America.

The Sunday slate is highlighted by the debuts of a trio of rookie quarterbacks — No.1 overall pick Caleb Williams (Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears), Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers), and Bo Nix (Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks).

Week 1 also will serve as the start of the post-Bill Belichick era for the New England Patriots, who are the biggest underdogs of the week on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals. Elsewhere, there are three divisional contests — Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, and Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers — and the Sunday slate wraps up with a playoff rematch between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions on “Sunday Night Football.”

The final offering of the season-opening spread has the New York Jets taking on the San Francisco 49ers on “Monday Night Football.” It’s a made-for-TV bookend to the Week 1 schedule, although Jets fans are just really hoping that history doesn’t repeat itself this season.

All odds from BetMGM. Looking for NFL tickets? Find them here. For information on streaming, click here.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (NBC)

The 2024 NFL season opens with the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens for the NFL Kickoff Game. Kansas City is a slight favorite against the team it beat in last season’s AFC Championship Game.

Head coach Andy Reid’s Chiefs are taking aim at an unprecedented three-peat with last season’s roster largely intact, while John Harbaugh’s Ravens have undergone significant changes since these teams met in late January. Baltimore will have several new starters on both sides of the ball and a rookie defensive coordinator in 32-year-old Zach Orr.

Orr is taking over a unit that made NFL history last season by leading the league in points allowed, sacks and takeaways. His first task is to slow down Patrick Mahomes and company in Arrowhead Stadium. Although Mahomes’ numbers may have been down last season by his standards, the Chiefs still finished sixth in the NFL in passing offense and ninth in total offense.

After Mahomes was victimized by numerous dropped passes, general manager Brett Veach made it a priority to revamp the wide receiver corps. Unfortunately, free-agent acquisition Marquise “Hollywood” Brown will miss this game due to a shoulder injury, which puts more pressure on lightning-fast first-round pick Xavier Worthy. Of course, Mahomes still has four-time All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce to rely on.

For Baltimore, Lamar Jackson is coming off a second MVP and will now be joined by two-time rushing champion Derrick Henry in the backfield. Henry adds a new dimension to the Ravens’ potent running attack, but there will be three new starting offensive linemen.

Kansas City’s defense, which played a huge role in last season’s Super Bowl run, will also feature some new pieces following the departures of cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Willie Gay Jr. But the anchors of the unit that ranked second in both scoring and total defense last season remain in All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones, do-everything linebacker Nick Bolton, and shutdown All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie.

So whether you want to focus on this being a playoff rematch, a duel between MVP quarterbacks or Super Bowl-winning head coaches, this is the type of game that’s tailor-made for kicking off the NFL season.

—Mark Ross

Expert picks

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Peaco*ck)

The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles ended the 2023 season as two teams rolling in completely opposite directions. While the Eagles were fading down the stretch on their way to an embarrassing first-round playoff loss, the Packers surged to the divisional round of the playoffs and found their next franchise quarterback in Jordan Love. The two teams start fresh on Friday night in Brazil, where the Eagles are a small favorite in the neutral site game.

The biggest focal points of this game will understandably be on the two quarterbacks, with some big questions around both Love and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts.

For Love, it is going to be whether or not he can build on his dominant second-half showing and justify the offseason contract extension that made him the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history (for now). He was borderline unstoppable in the second half and was the driving force behind the Packers’ run to the playoffs. While his wide receiver group isn’t full of superstars, it is an incredibly young — and talented — group that could be on the verge of breaking out if Love keeps progressing. They are going against a revamped Eagles defense that underwent significant changes both on the field and on the sidelines after a brutal end to 2023 that saw them finish 31st against the pass.

As for Hurts, the pressure is going to be on showing everybody which quarterback he is: The MVP candidate from 2022, or the one that struggled with turnovers and protecting the football in 2023. He still has one of the best skill position groups in the NFL to work with, a group that was only strengthened in the offseason with the addition of running back Saquon Barkley. The concern, though, is going to be how the Eagles replace center Jason Kelce.

There is the potential for a lot of offense in this game and both teams were better than .500 at hitting the over last season. This week’s total of 48.5 is tied for the second-highest total on the NFL schedule.

—Adam Gretz

Expert picks

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (FOX)

Usually, a two-win team would be an afterthought loser in a Week 1 pairing, but entering the 2024 season, the Panthers may be more promising than the Saints, who look less than mediocre on paper. However, the NFC South, where both of these teams reside, is a weak division, and the Saints are favored at home in the dome.

It’s season two of the Bryce Young Era for the Panthers. Any honeymoon he was allowed is now over. As a rookie, he completed less than 60 percent of his passes and had an 11-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Young will match against an improved but still average Saints’ defense. That could be what he and young receivers Jonathan Mingo and Xavier Legette need to get into the end zone.

It’s also season one for Carolina’s Dave Canales, taking over in his head coaching debut. Canales is a Pete Carroll protege. In his one season as an OC, Canales had mixed results, and he’s never mentored a young quarterback. The Panthers are trusting a rookie coach to mix together young skill players on offense.

Someone told the Saints it was a good idea to tie their hopes to veteran quarterback Derek Carr, a Raiders castoff who has one playoff game (a loss) on his 10-year NFL resume. The 33-year-old is serviceable, and he won’t make mistakes often, but he’s also nearly a decade removed from the only season he topped 30 touchdown passes. His targets in New Orleans will be wide receiver Chris Olave (1,123 yards on 87 catches in 2023) and undersized wide receiver Rashid Shaheed.

—Dan Holmes

Expert picks

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (FOX)

Caleb Williams will make his highly anticipated debut on Sunday when the Chicago Bears take on the Tennessee Titans at Soldier Field. Chicago is favored at home against a Tennessee team that underwent its own offseason makeover.

This game also marks the debut of Titans head coach Brian Callahan, who has been the Bengals’ offensive coordinator for the past five seasons. Callahan has been tasked with overhauling an offense that ranked 28th in both points and yards per game in 2023 and no longer features two-time league rushing champion Derrick Henry.

Callahan’s focus will be on developing quarterback Will Levis, who is entering his first full season as the starter. The team also was busy in free agency, signing wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd and running back Tony Pollard. Expect plenty of growing pains from this unit, especially with so many new pieces and a rebuilt offensive line.

There’s also the matter of dealing with a Bears defense that finished last season strong and could be even more fearsome in 2024. Generating a consistent pass rush will be critical but the pieces are in place for this unit to rank among the league’s best.

That will only help take some of the pressure off of Williams, who is taking over an offense that struggled to score last season despite featuring the league’s No. 1-ranked rushing attack. It’s just a matter of how quickly Williams acclimates to the pro game and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s play calling while avoiding costly mistakes.

Williams’ first NFL test comes against a Titans defense that will be full of new faces and has a rookie coordinator (Dennard Wilson). He doesn’t have to do it all by himself, thanks to a solid supporting cast around him, but everyone is eager to see if Williams will produce immediate positive results for the Bears or if more episodes of “Hard Knocks” are in store.

—Mark Ross

Expert picks

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (CBS)

The AFC South gets rolling early when the Indianapolis Colts host the Houston Texans. The division came down to the final drive in Week 18 last season, with the Texans getting a late stop for the 23-19 road win. With changes to both rosters since that final-week thriller, the Texans are slight favorites to win again in Indianapolis.

Surrounding emerging star quarterback C.J. Stroud with more weapons was Houston’s offseason priority. Trading for All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs and fortifying the run game with veteran back Joe Mixon completes a dangerous offense that returns wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

Reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. also gained reinforcements when the Texans signed Pro Bowl pass rusher Danielle Hunter from Minnesota. An inconsistent Houston offensive line needs to stay healthy for the Texans to make it deeper into the postseason.

Anthony Richardson staying on the field is key for the Colts. The athletic former top-five pick made only four starts — and finished only one game — during his rookie year before a season-ending shoulder injury.

Without Richardson, Indianapolis managed to finish a respectable 10th in the league in scoring offense and 15th in total yards per game. Expectations are even higher with a healthy quarterback and a healthier version of star running back Jonathan Taylor back in the lineup.

An inconsistent Indianapolis secondary needs to improve on last season’s poor finish. Collins lit up Colts corners for 195 yards in the Week 18 contest — a week after Raiders star Davante Adams (126 yards, two TDs) also put up a huge line on Indianapolis.

With minimal changes to that unit, the Colts are counting on an improved pass rush with first-round defensive end Laiatu Latu — the first defensive player taken in the 2024 NFL Draft.

—Scott Phillips

Expert picks

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (CBS)

The Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills face off in Highmark Stadium on Sunday with both teams looking to start their season on a winning note. Buffalo is a near-touchdown favorite at home.

Arizona is looking to rebound from a 4-13 2023 campaign and is counting on a fully healthy Kyler Murray and rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. to transform a passing attack that ranked 26th in the NFL last season. Murray is now more than 20 months removed from the torn ACL that ended his 2022 season, and he’ll also be supported by running back James Conner, who is coming off the first 1,000-yard season of his career.

Buffalo has won four straight AFC East titles but is a team somewhat in transition after an offseason full of changes, including two new coordinators. The Bills’ defense also will feature several new starters, including three defensive backs, and will be missing a key piece: Linebacker Matt Milano is out indefinitely after tearing his bicep in training camp.

Quarterback Josh Allen was responsible for 44 total touchdowns (29 passing, 15 rushing) last season, but his propensity to turn the ball over (22 total, including 18 interceptions) is a concern. Allen also will be working with a revamped receiving corps. Second-round pick Keon Coleman and free-agent signee Curtis Samuel will be counted on to contribute right away, while third-year wide receiver Khalil Shakir needs to build on the promise he showed last season. Allen can lean on second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid and running back James Cook, who finished fourth in rushing last season with 1,122 yards.

Allen and company will match up against a Cardinals defense that has been completely rebuilt after last season’s poor showing. There are new faces throughout this unit, which has already been hit with injuries. That’s not a good sign headed into this matchup against Allen, who is 35-13 at home in his career.

—Mark Ross

Expert picks

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (CBS)

It’s a new era for the New England Patriots.

For the first time since 1999, somebody other than Bill Belichick will be patrolling the team’s sidelines as Jerod Mayo makes his head coaching debut against the Cincinnati Bengals. That is about as tough of a matchup as he can get to start, having to go on the road against a potential Super Bowl contender, and he is opening as more than a touchdown underdog. They are the biggest underdogs on the Week 1 schedule.

The Patriots are just 5-14-1 against the spread in their past 20 games.

Even though the Patriots used the No. 3 pick in the draft on quarterback Drake Maye, they are opening the season with Jacoby Brissett as their starter in the hopes he can provide some veteran leadership to an offense lacking in playmakers and depth. How long that experiment lasts, however, remains to be seen.

Points are going to be a struggle all season for the Patriots, and they will have to turn every game into a low-scoring, defensive slugfest to scratch out the wins they do get.

The good news: Their defense might be capable of doing that on occasion, and they might also be catching the Bengals at the right time. Even though quarterback Joe Burrow is back after missing the second half of last season due to a wrist injury, he has had a tendency to start slow the past two seasons, and the availability of superstar wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is still unknown as he has barely practiced in the preseason due to a contract dispute.

If Chase does not play and Burrow is still limited in any way from the wrist injury, that could help narrow what would otherwise be a decisive talent gap on paper between the two teams.

—Adam Gretz

Expert picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (CBS)

The Sunshine State delivers a quality Week 1 matchup when the Jacksonville Jaguars battle the Miami Dolphins. Both Florida franchises won big and dreamed of deep postseason runs early last season. Injuries and faulty defense contributed to the Jaguars missing the playoffs and the Dolphins falling flat in a first-round blowout. Miami is favored in this matchup of teams looking for redemption.

Explosive offense still drives the Dolphins. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s connection with deep threat Tyreek Hill and Pro Bowl-caliber running mate Jaylen Waddle is special. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exceeded expectations by forming one of the league’s most potent backfields. Miami was second in points (29.2), first in yards (401.3), first in passing yards (265.5) and sixth in rushing yards (135.8) on a per-game basis last season.

Miami’s defense is a different story. The Dolphins have a new coordinator (Anthony Weaver) and significant personnel turnover to a group that finished 19th in defensive DVOA in 2023. Questions also linger about Miami’s ability to beat quality opponents. Ten of the team’s 11 wins last season came against teams with losing records.

Jacksonville is hoping Trevor Lawrence returns to his 2022 late-season form. Inconsistent even before a mid-season ankle injury, Lawrence never found his rhythm in 2023. Replacing standout receiver Calvin Ridley with Gabe Davis and promising rookie Brian Thomas Jr. is a risk the Jaguars have to take due to cap casualties.

Those same salary issues gutted Jacksonville’s secondary and put a lot of pressure on pass rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker to both earn double-digit sacks again. Pro Football Focus rated the Jaguars secondary 29th entering the 2024 season and the group will be immediately tested by Miami’s No. 1 offense.

—Scott Phillips

Expert picks

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (FOX)

One of Week 1’s tightest matchups is the Vikings in New Jersey to face the New York Giants in an early Sunday game. The sportsbooks have this one very close on the spread.

Giants’ head coach Brian Daboll is not messing around in his third season: He’ll do the offensive play-calling. His quarterback is once again Daniel Jones, who is an enigma of sorts. On one hand, Jones is 22-36 in five seasons. On the other, he produced a playoff win in 2022, and led the NFL in lowest INT percentage that season. He’s careful but sometimes too conservative. Giants fans want more “Danny” than “Daniel” from Jones.

Minnesota is starting quarterback Sam Darnold, who may as well be called “Suitcase Sammy” for all the traveling he’s done around the NFL. The former No. 3 overall pick is on his third team in three seasons. He’s never shown the ability to pass downfield accurately: Darnold has a 63-56 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 66 games.

The Giants face the possibility of a favorable schedule in the first two weeks. After battling Darnold and the Vikings, they play the Commanders in Week 2, a game they should be favored to win.

In both games, New York is matched against a backup or rookie quarterback. Nose tackle Dexter Lawrence II is a rarity in the modern NFL: an interior lineman who muscles his way to the quarterback despite having to contend with double teams or blocking schemes off both his shoulders. In the last two NFL seasons, Lawrence has 81 total pressures from the true nose tackle position, which is 65 more than the next closest nose tackle. He’s a throwback, and if he gets Darnold in his sights, the Giants will force Minnesota into long-yardage plays.

The Vikings were hamstrung by a -12 turnover differential last season, and it doesn’t bode well that Darnold is being asked to orchestrate this offense, with his penchant for floating, soaring “who knows where they may land” passes.

—Dan Holmes

Expert picks

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (FOX)

The debut of two newly-acquired veteran quarterbacks highlights an intriguing opener when the Atlanta Falcons host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Signing Kirk Cousins was the peak of Atlanta’s win-now offseason. Pittsburgh brought in Russell Wilson to elevate a playoff team with a sputtering offense. The Falcons are small favorites over the Steelers in this matchup.

Despite health concerns following a season-ending torn Achilles, Cousins represents an upgrade over turnover-prone Desmond Ridder. The veteran threw more touchdown passes in eight games for Minnesota (18) than Falcons quarterbacks did during the entire 2023 season (17).

Running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts are all capable of big games if Cousins is clicking. Stability in the running game from Robinson and backfield running mate Tyler Allgeier eases Atlanta’s transition at quarterback.

A strong Steelers defense counters with playmaking veterans that get to the quarterback (11th in sacks last season) and a secondary that forces turnovers at a high level (+11 turnover margin, third last season). T.J. Watt is still the league’s premier pass-rushing force and leads a nasty front seven.

That’s where Wilson comes into play.

With an offense near the bottom in yards per game (304.3 yards; 25th) and points per game (17.9 per game; tied 28th) last season, the Steelers still made the playoffs. Pittsburgh hopes Wilson’s resurgent season in Denver continues in a new offense.

The backfield of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren can carry the Steeler offense as Wilson gets adjusted. But Wilson needs to use deep-threat wide receiver George Pickens and red-zone threat Pat Freiermuth in the passing game if Pittsburgh wants offensive improvement.

—Scott Phillips

Expert picks

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (CBS)

The Seattle Seahawks have been in a strange sort of purgatory since their Super Bowl heartbreaker, posting 10 or more wins five times in nine years but never posing a threat to do much of anything but remain serviceable in an underwhelming division. They’re comfortable favorites to open the season against the Denver Broncos, but even with new coach Mike Macdonald, it’s a familiar feeling in Seattle.

Geno Smith is back with a restructured contract, and his return to NFL prominence has been an uplifting comeback tale. But his resurgence has yielded back-to-back 9-8 seasons and middling team offensive rankings, despite the presence of talented wideouts Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf and a great young runner in Kenneth Walker III. Their defense was brutal in 2023, but an infusion of young talent and Macdonald arriving, having just guided Baltimore’s defense to the top of the league, offers optimism in the long term. In the short term, the Hawks look to be in for another so-so season. And in the even shorter term, they’ll have to contend with a Sean Payton-led Bronco team riding positive vibes thanks to flashes of success last season and a rookie QB.

For all its failings, the Russell Wilson Gambit gave Denver one thing to smile about: a high enough draft pick to nab someone they believe is their passer of the future in Bo Nix. Nix’s numbers exploded after transferring to Oregon, and he arrives having thrown for 4,500 yards, 45 touchdowns, and three (!) interceptions last season. Preseason oohs and aahs from pundits, players, and just about everyone within eyesight of Nix did nothing to quell the hype, and Payton named him the starter without controversy.

Nix isn’t a deep ball thrower, ranking highest among power conference quarterbacks when it came to passes of zero or fewer air yards last year, but his top wideouts are Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds, so it’s not like he has a stable of elite speedsters he has to target deep. He’s touted for his quick release and ball security, and Payton’s play-action-heavy preseason offense seems to indicate he is leaning into Nix’s strengths.

Other than at quarterback, the Broncos are largely unchanged, thanks to being handcuffed by Wilson’s massive dead-money cap hit. Facing the steady, if underwhelming, Seahawks, Denver is banking that Nix’s jolt will bring just enough new energy to nab an early upset.

—J.J. Bailey

Expert picks

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (CBS)

To borrow a phrase, it’s not just another day for the Los Angeles Chargers; it’s TODAY. Yes, the unique verbal stylings of Jim Harbaugh have returned to the West Coast. He and the favored-by-a-field-goal Chargers are looking to finally capitalize on quarterback Justin Herbert’s talent and are betting on youth to pull it off.

Franchise receiving leader Keenan Allen is gone, as is veteran tight end Gerald Everett and dual-threat back Austin Ekeler. The three of them accounted for 48 percent of LA’s targets last season, with Allen tallying 150 himself.

Joshua Palmer (age 24) and Quentin Johnson (age 22) are now the lead wideouts, with incoming rookie slot man Ladd McConkey as the next-best option. Replacing Ekeler is the oft-injured duo of Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, neither of whom is known for their receiving skills.

All-American lineman Joe Alt is now on Herbert’s protection detail, which should afford him more time to let routes develop, but one wonders if the Bolts wouldn’t have been better served taking Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze at that draft slot.

Still, with Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, and other vets on defense, and Harbaugh’s track record of NFL success, the Chargers have that first-day-of-school energy heading into their opener.

Not so much for the Raiders, who begin the season having posted a .500 or worse record the preceding season for the 19th time in 21 years and with their 13th new head coach (Antonio Pierce) in that stretch.

Journeyman quarterback Gardner Minshew had to battle unknown Aidan O’Connell to win the starting spot, and his best target may not be long for Las Vegas. Davante Adams, who missed his first Pro Bowl selection in six seasons after joining the Raiders, is looking for a way out of Dodge in the hopes of salvaging the final years of his prime with a better offense. The Raiders — who don’t have a quarterback of the future, lost rusher Josh Jacobs in the offseason, and whose lone bright spot is defensive end Maxx Crosby — aren’t fertile ground for his final run.

With new general manager Tom Telesco, incoming unanimous All-American tight end Brock Bowers and all their draft picks for the next three years, the odds of them forgoing the haul Adams would bring ahead of a rebuild are slim. It looks like he’ll be around for the opener, but it’s hard to bet on the upset when the Raiders are treading water and the Chargers are looking to surge.

—J.J. Bailey

Expert picks

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (FOX)

It’s not often that a divisional champ with the highest-scoring offense enters the next season with this much uncertainty, but the Dallas Cowboys continue to be the standard-bearer for offseason drama. CeeDee Lamb is finally inked after a lengthy public staring contest with Jerry Jones, but despite his return and quarterback Dak Prescott coming off his best career year, Dallas opens the season as road underdogs against the Cleveland Browns.

The lack of faith is likely tied to their paper-thin depth and ongoing contract discomfort.

Jones proclaimed the team was all-in after being beaten by the Packers in the playoffs but spent the least amount of money in the league on acquisitions this offseason. Dallas lost running back Tony Pollard, wide receiver Michael Gallup, safety Jayron Kearse, linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, and edge rushers Dante Fowler Jr. and Dorance Armstrong, without any notable backfill in their wake. Ezekiel Elliott is their lead back once more, and after Lamb on the depth chart, Brandin Cooks is the next-best receiving option.

Prescott is in a contract year and cannot be franchise-tagged, and so is All-Pro guard Zack Martin. DeMarcus Lawrence joins them on that list, and the anchor of last year’s fifth-best scoring defense, Micah Parsons, will be in the same boat next year. Jerry’s World lacks stability going into Week 1.

But the Browns have their own mess on their hands and at the most critical position to boot. Deshaun Watson, who has played all of 12 games for Cleveland since they gave him the GDP of a small country three years ago, had season-ending surgery on his throwing shoulder last November. He missed the final preseason game with arm soreness, and what work he has done looked mediocre, according to beat writers covering the team.

Jameis Winston is the next man up for the Browns, and running back Nick Chubb remains on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, recovering from a brutal knee injury last season. With Amari Cooper being the scariest weapon in the arsenal and the Cowboys’ top-tier defense now being marshaled by talented coordinator Mike Zimmer, the Browns will need a marquee showing from reigning DPOY Myles Garrett and their top-ranked defense to live up to the favorable spread.

—J.J. Bailey

Expert picks

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX)

There could be a lot of groans and bruises in Tampa on Sunday. That’s because a rookie QB will be on the field behind a patched-together O-line for the Washington Commanders against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are slightly favored.

Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels is a former Heisman Trophy winner, and he has that “dual-threat” tag attached to his name. But his center, left guard and left tackle are all new faces for the C’s entering another uncertain season. Oddly, it feels like expectations for Daniels are modest, considering he was the No. 2 overall pick. Maybe the dismal recent history in Washington has made fans numb.

The Bucs are 10-5 against rookie quarterbacks since head coach Todd Bowles arrived in 2019 as defensive coordinator. The worry for Bowles is that Daniels will use his quick feet to scurry his way out of pressure, stealing successful yards out of broken plays. Last season, however, Tampa Bay was tied for most sacks in the NFC.

Tampa’s rookie RB Bucky Irving is a player to watch coming off a successful career with Oregon. Irving will not only get some carries behind starting RB Rachaad White, he’ll return kicks.

Daniels will draw a lot of eyes, but this game will also largely hinge on whether the Commanders have improved a defense that allowed a league-worst 30.5 points per game last season.

—Dan Holmes

Expert picks

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (NBC, Peaco*ck)

An unfamiliar word hovers over the season for the Detroit Lions: expectations. The Lions have a legit claim to being a Super Bowl contender. The roster is teeming with talent, but they’ll need it to produce on Sunday in primetime against the Los Angeles Rams.

This is a rematch from last season’s Wild Card round when the Lions won 24-23. Detroit is favored to win again.

Sean McVay can expect an improved defense compared to the unit that ranked 19th in points allowed last season. Corners Tre’Davious White and Darious Williams are new to the gold and blue, and pass rusher Jared Verse is also in tow. With Aaron Donald retired, the LA defense enters a new era.

McVay’s brilliance rests in his complex, effective offense. The Rams will be led by 36-year-old Matthew Stafford, who must be delighted that star wideout Cooper Kupp enters the season healthy. The same is not true of No. 2 receiver Puka Nacua, nursing a knee injury.

Meanwhile, Dan Campbell must prove that he’s not a one-year fluke. His go-for-broke approach has won over the state of Michigan, but now he and his team are facing tougher challenges in the NFC North.

As long as QB Jared Goff, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, and TE Sam LaPorta are on the field, Detroit is a favorite to win the division again. Much of the offseason was spent bolstering the defense, which has three new starters and oodles of added depth. That’s welcome after Detroit allowed 23.1 points per game in 2023, placing them in the bottom third of the league.

—Dan Holmes

Expert picks

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (ABC, ESPN)

Monday Night Football opens 2024 with a spotlight matchup when the San Francisco 49ers host the New York Jets. Following last season’s Super Bowl loss, the 49ers are aiming to avoid a letdown. If four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy, the Jets also believe they’re a contender. The 49ers are favorites to win over the Jets to close out the Week 1 schedule.

San Francisco’s roster is filled with luxuries. Brock Purdy was the NFL’s most efficient passer last season (113 QB Rating). Reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey stands behind Purdy at running back. And Purdy returns his three favorite receivers now that Brandon Aiyuk inked an extension to get back on the field. The trio of Aiyuk, receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle remains a nightmare to game plan against.

Third in points allowed (17.5) and eighth in yards allowed per game (303.9) last season, the Niners defense has new faces with defensive end Arik Armstead departing for Jacksonville and linebacker Dre Greenlaw (Achilles) starting the season on the sidelines. Nick Bosa and company still have plenty of returning talent to maintain a top-10 defense.

For the Jets, Rodgers played four offensive snaps in 2023 before a ruptured Achilles ended his season. Jets passers had a league-low 70.5 QB Rating once Rodgers went down. An overhauled offensive line and emerging playmakers keeps optimism going in New York. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall could have All-Pro seasons if Rodgers can return to form.

Even if Rodgers is rusty, defense remains the backbone for New York. Pro Football Focus ranked the Jets No. 1 at defensive line, linebacker and secondary during group rankings this offseason.

—Scott Phillips

Expert picks

(Photo of Aaron Rodgers: Mike Stobe / Getty Images)